Big Picture

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" 

This quote is attributed to Albert Bartlett (Albert was an American professor of physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder).

Dr. Bartlett gave his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population and Energy 1,742 times since September 1969 (average of once every 8.5 days) according to the website dedicated to him:

https://www.albartlett.org/index.html  

DO:  The lesson Al Bartlett wanted to share with his classes was the power of math.  Detached Observation helps to understand Change by learning the power of the mathematics and implications of doubling.  Below is the formula for the Rule of 70:

        dt = 70/r 

As an example, if there is a global (Or nation, state, city, etc.) growth of an item with a 2% annual rate - it would have a doubling time of 35 years.

        35 = 70/2  

Exponential and the Human Brain

The human brain survives on what it is born with along with the inputs and predictions from birth.  Throughout human history, there has been no doubling use of planetary resources in a person's lifetime or doubles of world human populations and massive changes in the environment and technology.  

Thus, the human brain was not built for this.  As mentioned above, humans can adapt to change.  It is important to emphasize that it takes time and energy to adapt and everyone does not adapt at the same speed (Thus the imbalance you see in society today).  This imbalance causes anxiety in people - as mentioned in the 7 Starters, humans try to survive both physically and within the culture.  Both of these forms of survival are challenging in a world that has doubled in time frames that are a blip on the screen versus the history of this planet and the time humans have been here.  

Mapping Strategy

One of the areas we want to focus on is that it takes a lot of energy to adapt.  From the 7 Starters, we discussed that uncertainty and change are harder to predict and both require additional brain energy.  From an organization and society standpoint, this also holds true.  Understanding change makes it easier for the brain to predict and makes energy use more efficient.  Simplifying complexity also reduces energy consumption.  These two components will be a part of our mapping strategy to assist you in adapting and thriving through change.

Let's explore the concept of exponential growth and how it can impact a city or an organization.  

First, we will start at 1,000.  This could be a city's population, the size of an organization's employees, or the size of an organization's customer base.  

1,000

2,000

4,000

8,000

16,000

32,000

64,000

128,000

256,000

512,000

1.024,000

2,048,000

4,096,000

8,192,000

Using Detached Observation, let's reflect on the following questions:

City>  How will this city obtain the water, food, and resources it will need to sustain its current population and how will it prepare for future growth?  What kind of energy needs will this city have?

How will this city growth impact the environment in which it exists?  How will people get along as the city becomes more diversified?  What are the opportunities and risks as this city expands?

Employee>  How will an organization manage a quick rise in employee growth?  Reflect on the complexity (and additional energy required) as an organization expands.  How does a quick rise in employee size impact an organization's culture?  How does an organization manage individual employees perceptions as it becomes much larger?

Customers>  How does an organization manage the customer experience when it expands quickly?  Reflect on the complexity of managing customer perceptions as an organization expands.  

Throughout human history, there were feedbacks that limited the growth and change of human society.  Some of these included:

- Limited knowledge

- Disease and shorter lifespans

- Lack of resources

- Natural disasters

What is interesting to reflect on is that human society today sees today's world as normal.  It is hard for the brain to understand that most all of human history is not like today.  We want to drive this point consistently to induce more understanding of the change and empathy for ourselves and others as we all try to manage this change within our own lives and our organizations.  What is happening today is not normal compared to almost all of human civilization.  Also, what we may feel is normal will not be normal to someone living 50 to 100 years from now.

Let's now explore the categories we will be covering at this site:

Prior to the last few hundred years, humans lived in a linear world with a steady level of population due to the positive feedbacks that kept humans within a certain boundary.  Humans depended on energy from the sun.  With the discovery of new energy (coal, oil, & gas), humans used these fuels with their ingenuity to develop the world you see today.

The important lesson we want to drive home in this section is the vital aspect of excess energy.  The surplus is so important both in the development of current society and whether it can be sustained moving forward.  Let's discuss the equation:

EROI (Energy Return on Investment)  

EROI =  Quantity of Energy Supplied/Quantity of Energy Used in the Supply Process

How did the human population of the planet grow so fast over the last couple hundred years?  

Excess Energy  

Humans, plants, and other species need to invest energy and get a good return on their investment.  

Survival depends on this concept.

Exploring this further in nature...

Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT) >  Traits for an individual will be selected that maximize surplus energy gained per unit of time from foraging.  OFT predicts the most profitable feeding strategy for an organism given the costs of capturing the food versus the energy gained from the food the food capture.  

DO:  Societies, Organizations, and Individuals will have various levels of approach and avoid based on their excess energy equation.

Let's explore some concepts relating to Energy:

DISORDER

The natural tendency of all things is toward disorder. If you want order, energy must be invested.

DO:  A city, a building, a home, a vehicle, a business, a human body, etc.  They will go to disorder without the investment of energy.

As humans, we are constantly looking to find additional energy to maintain and acquire resources.

ENTROPY

Entropy is a measure of disorder or randomness in a system.  It is a measure of the amount of energy that, during an energy transformation, becomes no longer available to do work.  We will discuss this concept more in the environment section.

Order is important to focus on because it represents the maintenance of biological and economic structure - very specific molecules in an organism - structures/buildings in a city - a sandwich, etc.

The price of maintaining order is extracting and using energy from the environment.

DO:  Lessons from this work on EROI.  We as individuals, organizations, and society are constantly seeking excess energy to survive and thrive.  Businesses seek more profits (more claims on energy).  We also seek order and certainty as they increase our chances of survival.  Since the direction is toward disorder, we need energy to keep our world in order.  Energy, Order, and Certainty - all three are important points as we design maps.

Energy as it relates to the changes you will experience in our society

For thousands of years, the average annual growth of the human economy would be unnoticeable from one generation to the next. 

In the early 19th century, 10,000 years after the agricultural revolution, humans discovered how to extract fossil energy and materials from the earth to boost their economies.

The discovery of geologically ‘stored sunlight’ in the form of coal, oil, and gas changed the human experience. 

The Power of this discovery and its impact 

In comparison to a global labor force of around 5 billion real humans at the time - machines and work powered by access to buried carbon energy added the equivalent power of 500 billion human workers.  This leverage has powered the growth in human population and wealth.

Obtaining a larger energy surplus gives us a competitive advantage for survival and reproduction. This role of surplus energy is a core driver of the natural world.  

DO:  This energy surplus plays a vital role in current approach avoid behavior at the societal and individual level 

Important points to understand as we move forward:

The easiest goes first

High quality ores and energy deposits are now mostly things of the past. There are still plenty of ores and energy - but it’s of lower quality, and both more costly and ecologically destructive to extract. 

From an energy and resource perspective, humans have and will continue to search for the best EROI on energy and resources.   Thus, sticking a straw in the ground for oil has moved to massive structures in the oceans digging for miles and fracking for lower EROI (tight) oil

Complexity requires more energy 

More complex systems/things require more energy.

Getting back to the city population growth example from above.  Reflect on the increased complexity required to run a much larger city and thus, the amount of surplus energy needed for the city to survive and thrive.

Money

Money is a direct claim on energy and resources.  As we create more money we don't create more resources, we merely access them faster.  Debt allows us to spend resources from the future.

The drive to acquire things

As humans, we are driven to pursue the same neurochemical brain rewards our ancestors pursued.  This has huge implications for our behaviors, our economies, and our futures.

Dopamine (A very important concept in approach/avoid)

Dopamine is a molecule that leads to motivation and action.

The habituation of the action of consumption leads to the Wanting of things being stronger than the reward of Having them.  (An economic system that is turning billions of barrels of oil into microliters of dopamine)

DO:  As covered in the Research (Approach/Avoid) page, we as humans have higher levels of dopamine in the anticipation of the reward than in the reward itself.

Our stone-age brains are no match for the social media algorithms that now constantly hijack our attention.  

Modern society is polarized, stressed, and overwhelmed with information - good and bad.  

If we were to grow the global economy at 3% as most governments and institutions expect, we would use as much energy and materials in the next few decades as we have in the past 10,000.

Other Important Points on Energy:

1 Barrel of oil contains 5,700,000 BTU's or 1700 kWh of work potential

   >  It takes an average person 4.5 years to generate this amount of work

   >  World uses 100 billion barrels of oil per year 

   >  Labor equivalent to 500 billion human workers to the real labor force of 5 billion workers

Human society is just paying for the extraction cost of oil - It was already in the ground Long ago

Story of Industrialization - Example of milking cows

Hand milking - Near $5 USD purchase per hour of work

Parlour Milking - Near $20 USD purchase per hour of work (Takes 180x more Energy)

Automated Milking - Near $25 USD purchase per hour of work (Takes 400x more Energy)

>  When prices of energy moves up (Example - from 5 USD cents to 15 USD cents hWh) there is a Large decline in profits of highly intensive energy processes  

Every unit of GDP requires

- Energy

- Materials

- Innovation/technology

Important points about Climate Change, Pollution, and Externalities:

>  Globally, GDP and Energy are over 99% correlated.  

>  Materials and GDP are 100% correlated 

The vast amount of technological improvements requires more energy in the future

We are getting more efficient - For example:  Since 1990, we have become 36% more energy efficient.  In that same period, we have increased energy consumption by 63% (Jevons Paradox)

Jevons Paradox definition >  When the cost of using a resource decreases due to increased efficiency, it becomes more attractive for consumers and industries to use it. This increased affordability leads to higher consumption and can potentially offset the initial gains in efficiency. 

The developed world has a 380% debt to GDP

Important >  Debt is a future claim on energy (next category)

Mapping Focus and Trends we will be watching

Society Map/Risk:  Map out the energy required for your organization.  What are the risks of this energy supplied?  Map out EROI on current energy sources on society as a whole to review future trends and potential risks. 

The next two categories include the Economy and Resources.  Since there is a 99% correlation between energy, GDP, and resources (materials), we need to address these three on a national/worldwide basis.  

With the discovery of fuels to advance human civilization, humans have globalized trade to increase growth.  Because EROI is declining, human society is using more debt to bring additional growth.  

Any source of money (Digital, gold, hard cash, crypto - is a claim on Energy).  The value of money depends on how humans can obtain additional energy to increase wealth and maintain previous wealth.  Since the system is leveraged and fiat currency does not have physical tethers, money is just a claim - NOT a guarantee to receive the full value of the claim.  Every claim (no matter what source of money it is) requires energy and resources to claim.  

Big takeaway and a future risk to organizations and individuals:

More leverage in money claims along with more claims on money (debt, various sources of claims - crypto) against a world of higher extraction costs of energy and resources has huge implications when too many people want to claim that money. 

Mapping Focus for the Economy and trends we will be watching

Our Mapping Strategy would be to have a map on how your organization takes in and uses money and how the economy impacts you.  Then, focus on the risks:  

Interest rates

Recession/Depression

Changes in Money

Changes in the Value of Money

Changes in the Confidence level of Money

Inflation

How the Cost of Energy/Resources will impact Money

Trends in the Economy and Money and Energy

Changes in Debt and the Perception of Debt

The trend we will watch carefully is the Energy aspect and the Perception/Confidence aspects.  Fiat Money is not tied to anything.  Thus, it relies on both Energy and Confidence.  The 2007-8 Financial Crisis provides an excellent example of the Cost of Energy and the Lack of Confidence.  A system that is leveraged needs continuous Energy and Confidence (Order) as the implications of a breakdown of these can be severe.  The world continues to add debt as a way to bring demand forward.  As the EROI of energy fluctuates and trends lower, we expect the way debt is managed will change and we expect power struggles (nations against nations and within nations) to increase in how debt claims are settled. 

Along with Energy and Excess Energy, humans need the basics as a whole to survive.  These include Water, Food, Shelter, Clothing, etc.

As humans, we seek not only to survive but to live a meaningful and good life.  To build a world of 8 billion people, our civilization requires a lot of resources. 

The challenge with resources, as it is with energy, is that the easy resources have been extracted long ago.  As such, the deeper humans need to extract, the more technology and energy will be required.  Thus, the expense of the additional extractions rises.  Also, at the same time it has become more expensive to extract resources, the world's population and demand for resources have grown considerably.  A person in one part of the world wants the standard of living another person has in a different part of the world.  Nations, like humans, try to move up the hierarchy to increase their chances of survival.  They will compete for resources and when resources become limited, there will be conflict.

One implication of the current scenario of extracting more expensive resources is the challenge of financing.  Thus, we see more borrowing from the future for the extraction and use today. A lot of the current growth around the world is being financed from borrowing - debt.  

Time will tell how this all develops.  It is important to note that the story of exponential growth has a daily impact on organizations and individuals in terms of how they approach and avoid.

Mapping Strategy for Resources and trends we will be watching

We can help by mapping resources your organization needs.  By monitoring changes and managing risks, your organization will be able to adapt better to oncoming changes.

The simple math of doubling shows how the cost of extracting resources has risen.  Technology has and will be counter to this math.  There will be price increases in various areas of resources and some will be sharp over the near term.  Because human society goes after the easiest resources first, we know that the easiest to find resources are in the rearview mirror.  Thus, the EROI of resource attainment is in constant flux.  

Customer Perception:  With all the information from these first three categories, customers are feeling the pinch across the globe.  The cost of basics along with other items continue to increase.  Understanding the worlds of customers away from your organization will be essential.     

The exponential way humans have grown over the last few hundred years has been positive to the standard of living, life spans, and the ability to enjoy more of the day vs previous generations.  A disadvantage to humans was the speed at which it all happened.  When the world seemed bigger and economic theory was being further developed, there was an error made that our society is now having to confront.  This error was not including the impacts to the environment within economic models and to the balance sheets.  Instead, it was sent out to the common without acknowledging true costs.  At that time, it would have been difficult to foresee the Big Picture.  Even today, in 2024, there is still a large misunderstanding of this equation and its impact.  Detached Observation lowers bias and emotions and relies on what has advanced human society - math and the scientific method.  

The challenge human society has of putting the Environment in the economic equation now includes a few of the following:

-  Companies and shareholders do not want to take a hit to share prices and profits.  Black to Red in an instant. 

-  Having wealth increases status and the chances of survival better and thus takes first priority over the environment (this priority can and will change at some point when status and survival and the environment is 1st priority).

-  Humans respond to the near and now vs the future.  For basically all of human history, the near term was always survival.  Plus, humans did not understand the earth and its systems until recently - again, a small blip on a human/earth time scale.

-  The environment/earth is complex, difficult for individuals to give it energy as they attempt to survive on a daily basis.  First priority, survival.  Surplus allows a person to think and act beyond the basic necessities of life.

-  This all happened so fast and it challenges many world views.  Again, the power of the exponential vs linear thinking.

-  From a linear and energy perspective, many do not understand the issues at hand.  It is easier to have one issue to focus on versus attempting to understand the whole system.    

Bottom line:  The whole earth is connected.  It is difficult to understand because going to a grocery store with stocked shelves works for individuals to survive in the moment.  Many of the Big Picture concepts are beyond the energy a person wants to give during the day.  Also, humans spent almost every moment in history not needing to think of the global Big Picture.  The human mind wants simplicity in a world that is getting more complex.  

We will attempt to make the complex simple so you can understand major concepts without spending an extraordinary amount of energy researching to learn.

Mapping Focus for the Environment and Trends we will be watching

We will focus our efforts on the needs of those who seek our service.  A person in government can have a different need for immediate environment adaptation than a business owner.  As mentioned above, the information of the changing earth's environment (due to the exponential) can be overwhelming.  Thus, making it simple, focused, and effective will be our objectives.

We will also help you with Human Perception in terms of the Environment.  People will - and do - feel helpless and powerless.  We like to be in control of our world and do not like uncertainty.  Every topic within the Big Picture challenges an individual person/organization of being in control and have a specific certain future.  

Below you will find many of the areas we will be covering when it comes to the environment.  If you work in any of these fields and want to get in touch with us to give your feedback, we welcome your insight.

Here are the areas that we are watching:

- Biodiversity

- Species Adaption 

- Oceans

- Fishing Stocks

- Habitat

- Invasive Species / Movement to Adapt

- Climate

- Pollution

- Ice Melt

- Fresh Water and the competition for

- Soil Degradation

- Plastics and Chemicals added to the system

- and other selected areas

We put Environment number 4 (even though it should be 1st).  This is because human society as a whole will continue to pursue as much energy and resources to increase individual, national, and global wealth.  The Environment is lower on the hierarchy.  Thus, the simple math tells us that there will be exponential changes around the planet and these uncertain changes will develop quickly on a human timescale.  Expect (based on individual adaptation behaviors to this) customers and employees looking to organizations to do more to help people feel hopeful (reducing uncertainty). 

The amount of knowledge about the human self, our earth, and the universe has advanced dramatically over the last 100 plus years.  This knowledge will continue to move forward quickly.  The challenge is educating the public on this knowledge.  Like all knowledge, it takes time to disseminate from the source of knowledge to all of society.  

Within this section, we will focus on basic concepts of the human self, our world, and the universe.  We will discuss simple concepts that will help society advance peacefully through uncertain times as well as knowledge that will help organizations work to help people adapt to change.  

As we learn more about Approach Avoid and the human brain, there is just basic knowledge from a logical point of view that humans know (as is obvious because it is within this website), yet society as a whole does not advance as quickly as the knowledge does and people adapt to new knowledge at different rates.

Basic knowledge to help people have empathy and approach others:

>  No human born into this world picked their parents, the brain development (internal brain structure), the color of their skin, the community in which they were born, their economic status, the world views that were taught to them growing up, the early education they received, etc.

DO:  Hate is outdated based on human knowledge.  However, it is still needed as it is useful because human society as a whole has not used energy to learn about the self.  Also, there is an advantage of using hate to obtain more resources and status.  This gets back to human society does not all advance forward at the same speed.

DO:  Helping people perspective take of another persons lifetime will help them become more intelligent and understanding.

Basic knowledge when you apply brain predictions and brain learning throughout a lifetime:

>  Another human who we may disagree with is who they are based on the above (being born into a situation they had no control over) and their brain predictions and environment that shaped them all the way up to the moment in which there is a conflict of thoughts, ideas, or actions.  

DO:  Lesson, we would be just like the person we disagree with if were them

Mapping Strategy for Knowledge

Learning more about Approach/Avoid behavior can help business and help society overall.  We will focus mapping on current and new insights into the human brain.  Then, we can take this to build better organizations and customer relationships.

One area that truly has seen the results of Exponential is Technology.  Adapting to change takes energy.  It takes energy to learn new skills and adapt to new and ever-changing societal norms.  Technology and its changing form have large impacts on individual and group approach and avoid.  

Adapting to technological change also impacts approach and avoid.  Each person has their own adaptation to fast-changing technology.  This can make it challenging for companies to manage brain predictions (better service) of their customers.  It also plays a large role for employees to be trained correctly to help the customers.  

Areas we will focus on in Technology:

AI

New technologies to improve the human experience

Technologies for organizations and individuals to compete

Technologies that address everything on this page

Mapping Strategy for Technology

A disadvantage of society Energy, Economics, Resources, and the Environment is that these are out of the control of an individual and an organization.  Technology advances are out of control as well.  However, an organization can use Technology as a strong adaptation to Uncertainty and Change.  Leveraging technology to help people adapt by Mapping will be an important strategy for us.

Human survival drives Technology advances.  Thus, expect more exponential change in the category.  Especially considering the need to adapt as a whole society to changes in all the categories listed above.

Humans have spent almost all of their existence in small tribes.  Now, for the following reasons, humans have to adapt together as Global Village.  Because of the risks, this isn't an option.  

> Nuclear War and nuclear accidents

> Global Pandemics

> Technology - Actions taken by others are viewed throughout the world in an instant

> Resources, trade, global markets

> Ecological overshoot and the Environment   

> Energy needs

This global village is so difficult to achieve due to the quickness (exponential change) in which all this happened.  The brain is still for small tribes (small social groups), Importance for In-group for survival (People of a nation, people who look similar and share similar views, etc).  People who move to other nations throughout the globe have induced more nationalism and isolated thoughts.  As mentioned in the 7 Starters, culture is a part of survival. 

DO:  Change takes energy for the brain to predict.  People who do not share similarities require more energy.  This energy is already under stress from trying to predict other inputs from the exponential.

Mapping Strategy for Survival

Document and Map risks to your organization from the above list and more.  Also, a map can be made to develop better strategies for improved Organization Villages.  

Expect more external risk from society in general.  Human society is going through fast and uncertain change.  We are entering a different phase on Energy, Resources, Money, Environment, and Technology.  It is too many moving and unpredictable parts.  Thus, work on expecting the unexpected.

Look to our BLOG for posts regarding the above categories.  

Here is a link to the BLOG page.

ENERGY

Wealth needs energy.  The drive for increased wealth (self-esteem/survival) is on top of the hierarchy.  It will continue to supersede the Environment, the Global Village, and some aspects of Knowledge.

We will be watching "all of the above" in the trends of energy use and what is happening in all energy areas.  Any bumps in the road

ECONOMY

RESOURCES

ENVIRONMENT

KNOWLEDGE

TECHNOLOGY

GLOBAL VILLAGE