ENERGY

Prior to the last few hundred years, humans lived in a linear world with a steady level of population due to the positive feedbacks that kept humans within a certain boundary.  Humans depended on energy from the sun.  With the discovery of new energy (coal, oil, & gas), humans used these fuels with their ingenuity to develop the world you see today.

The important lesson we want to drive home in this section is the vital aspect of excess energy.  The surplus is so important both in the development of current society and whether it can be sustained moving forward.  Let's discuss the equation:

EROI (Energy Return on Investment)  

EROI =  Quantity of Energy Supplied/Quantity of Energy Used in the Supply Process

How did the human population of the planet grow so fast over the last couple hundred years?  

Excess Energy  

Humans, plants, and other species need to invest energy and get a good return on their investment.  

Survival depends on this concept.

Exploring this further in nature...

Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT) >  Traits for an individual will be selected that maximize surplus energy gained per unit of time from foraging.  OFT predicts the most profitable feeding strategy for an organism given the costs of capturing the food versus the energy gained from the food the food capture.  

DO:  Societies, Organizations, and Individuals will have various levels of approach and avoid based on their excess energy equation.

Let's explore some concepts relating to Energy:

DISORDER

The natural tendency of all things is toward disorder. If you want order, energy must be invested.

DO:  A city, a building, a home, a vehicle, a business, a human body, etc.  They will go to disorder without the investment of energy.

As humans, we are constantly looking to find additional energy to maintain and acquire resources.

ENTROPY

Entropy is a measure of disorder or randomness in a system.  It is a measure of the amount of energy that, during an energy transformation, becomes no longer available to do work.  We will discuss this concept more in the environment section.

Order is important to focus on because it represents the maintenance of biological and economic structure - very specific molecules in an organism - structures/buildings in a city - a sandwich, etc.

The price of maintaining order is extracting and using energy from the environment.

DO:  Lessons from this work on EROI.  We as individuals, organizations, and society are constantly seeking excess energy to survive and thrive.  Businesses seek more profits (more claims on energy).  We also seek order and certainty as they increase our chances of survival - (Disorder and uncertainty demand energy).  Since the direction is toward disorder, we need energy to keep our world in order.  Energy, Order, and Certainty - all three are important points as we design maps.

Energy as it relates to the changes you will experience in our society

(Thank you to the work of Nate Hagens for the information in this section)

For thousands of years, the average annual growth of the human economy would be unnoticeable from one generation to the next. 

In the early 19th century, 10,000 years after the agricultural revolution, humans discovered how to extract fossil energy and materials from the earth to boost their economies.

The discovery of geologically ‘stored sunlight’ in the form of coal, oil, and gas changed the human experience. 

The Power of this discovery and its impact 

In comparison to a global labor force of around 5 billion real humans at the time - machines and work powered by access to buried carbon energy added the equivalent power of 500 billion human workers.  This leverage has powered the growth in human population and wealth.

Obtaining a larger energy surplus gives us a competitive advantage for survival and reproduction. This role of surplus energy is a core driver of the natural world.  

DO:  This energy surplus plays a vital role in current Approach/Avoid behavior at the societal and individual level 

Important points to understand as we move forward:

The easiest goes first

High quality ores and energy deposits are now mostly things of the past. There are still plenty of ores and energy - but it’s of lower quality, and both more costly and ecologically destructive to extract. 

From an energy and resource perspective, humans have and will continue to search for the best EROI on energy and resources.   Thus, sticking a straw in the ground for oil has moved to massive structures in the oceans digging for miles and fracking for lower EROI (tight) oil.

Complexity requires more energy 

Getting back to the city population growth example from above.  Reflect on the increased complexity required to run a much larger city and thus, the amount of surplus energy needed for the city to survive and thrive.

Money is a direct claim on energy and resources.  

As we create more money we don't create more resources, we merely access them faster.  Debt allows us to spend resources from the future.

The drive to acquire resources to survive (Physical and Cultural)

As humans, we are driven to pursue the same neurochemical brain rewards our ancestors pursued.  This has huge implications for our behaviors, our economies, and our futures.

Dopamine (A very important concept in approach/avoid)

Dopamine is a molecule that leads to motivation and action.

The habituation of the action of consumption leads to the Wanting of things being stronger than the reward of Having them.  (An economic system that is turning billions of barrels of oil into microliters of dopamine)

DO:  As covered in the Research (Approach/Avoid) page, we as humans have higher levels of dopamine in the anticipation of the reward than in the reward itself.

Our stone-age brains are no match for the social media algorithms that now constantly hijack our attention.  

Modern society is polarized, stressed, and overwhelmed with information - good and bad.  

If we were to grow the global economy at 3% as most governments and institutions expect, we would use as much energy and materials in the next few decades as we have in the past 10,000.

Other Important Points on Energy:

1 Barrel of oil contains 5,700,000 BTU's or 1700 kWh of work potential

   >  It takes an average person 4.5 years to generate this amount of work

   >  World uses 100 billion barrels of oil per year 

   >  Labor equivalent to 500 billion human workers to the real labor force of 5 billion workers

Human society is just paying for the extraction cost of oil - It was already in the ground Long ago

Story of Industrialization - Example of milking cows

Hand milking - Near $5 USD purchase per hour of work

Parlour Milking - Near $20 USD purchase per hour of work (Takes 180x more Energy)

Automated Milking - Near $25 USD purchase per hour of work (Takes 400x more Energy)

>  When prices of energy moves up (Example - from 5 USD cents to 15 USD cents hWh) there is a Large decline in profits of highly intensive energy processes  

Every unit of GDP requires

- Energy

- Materials

- Innovation/technology

Important points about Climate Change, Pollution, and Externalities:

>  Globally, GDP and Energy are over 99% correlated.  

>  Materials and GDP are 100% correlated 

The vast amount of technological improvements requires more energy in the future

We are getting more efficient - For example:  Since 1990, we have become 36% more energy efficient.  In that same period, we have increased energy consumption by 63% (Jevons Paradox)

Jevons Paradox definition >  When the cost of using a resource decreases due to increased efficiency, it becomes more attractive for consumers and industries to use it. This increased affordability leads to higher consumption and can potentially offset the initial gains in efficiency. 

The developed world has a 380% debt to GDP

Detached Observation IS Statement on Energy:

As an individual, a nation, or as a world, we need energy to survive.  As humans, we have thrived based on having surplus energy.  There is a cost to exploring and acquiring energy to be used for society.  This cost fluctuates based on findings, technology, and use.  The general rule is that the easiest and best energy from the earth has been used.  Thus, going forward, expect to see a lot of focus on capturing energy (both from a national perspective and an overall human perspective).  

Money is a claim on energy.  More on this in the Economic section.

Thought Equation for Energy:

Mapping Strategy for Energy:

Society Map/Risk:  Map out the energy required for your organization.  What are the risks of this energy supplied?  Map out EROI on current energy sources on society as a whole to review future trends and potential risks. 

The next two categories include the Economy and Resources.  Since there is a 99% correlation between energy, GDP, and resources (materials), we need to address these three on a national/worldwide basis.  

ENERGY

Wealth needs energy.  The drive for increased wealth (self-esteem/survival) is on top of the hierarchy.  It will continue to supersede the Environment, the Global Village, and some aspects of Knowledge.

We will be watching "all of the above" in the trends of energy use and what is happening in all energy areas.  Areas to watch in 2025 on Energy:

     - Costs 

     - Changes in US and World Oil/Gas Production

     - Any "Bumps in the Road" within this year's timeframe

     - Early Detection of Larger changes that could impact Energy 

2025 Big Picture Energy Watch