ENERGY

Three areas covered here and monitored for change and risk within Energy:

1.  Energy Return on Investment (EROI) 

2.  Math of energy needed for current human society

2.  Disorder

DETACHED OBSERVANCE STATEMENT #1

>  Excess Energy is Vital to Growth and a Better Human Experience  

EROI = Energy Return on Investment

EROI =  Quantity of Energy Supplied/Quantity of Energy Used in the Supply Process

RISK with what we will be monitoring

Lower EROI for energy sources means additional energy/resources will be needed to be invested within that particular energy sector.  Thus, less all around benefits to other areas outside of extraction.    

There are people who research the EROI numbers.  It is not an easy math equation to have an answer for.  As such, along with such research, other ways can be used to monitor how this risk is playing out (money/subsidies put towards energy along with debt - pulling demand forward)

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Prior to the last few hundred years, humans lived in a linear world with a steady level of population due to the positive feedbacks that kept humans within a certain boundary.  Humans depended on energy from the sun.  With the discovery of new energy (coal, oil, & gas), humans used these fuels with their ingenuity to develop the world you see today.

Humans, plants, and other species need to invest energy and get a good return on their investment.  Survival depends on this concept.

Exploring this further in nature...

Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT) >  Traits for an individual will be selected that maximize surplus energy gained per unit of time from foraging.  OFT predicts the most profitable feeding strategy for an organism given the costs of capturing the food versus the energy gained from the food the food capture.  

DO:  Societies, Organizations, and Individuals will have various levels of approach and avoid based on their excess energy equation.  Human Society, Organizations, and Individuals seek higher EROI.  Society needs higher EROI for electricity, roads, hospitals, schools, and more.  

The Power of this discovery and its impact 

In comparison to a global labor force of around 5 billion real humans at the time - machines and work powered by access to buried carbon energy added the equivalent power of 500 billion human workers.  This leverage has powered the growth in human population and wealth.

Obtaining a larger energy surplus gives us a competitive advantage for survival and reproduction.  

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DETACHED OBSERVATION STATEMENT #2

>  With increased growth of human population and their additional needs (especially with data centers and AI), human society will need a tremendous amount of energy to meet these needs

RISK with what we will be monitoring

Related to EROI, what will be the cost?  Not only the financial cost for society, but will the strain be on the environment and other valuable resources?

We will monitor the math as well as research into environmental and societal impacts

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DETACHED OBSERVANCE STATEMENT #3

>  DISORDER - The natural tendency of all things is toward disorder.  If you want order, energy must be invested.

DO:  A city, a building, a home, a vehicle, a business, a human body, etc.  Constant energy is required to bring order from disorder.

RISK and what we will be monitoring

As cities become larger and more complex with expensive infrastructure, they become more vulnerable to disorder.  The cost of repairs and maintenance (energy) becomes higher.  

We will be monitoring all levels of disorder because it gets back to the EROI.  Society can take on more disorder with larger energy surpluses.  As the surplus gets larger or disorder gets to high levels, this will impact society.  A society paying more for energy has less for other endeavors.

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As humans, we are constantly looking to find additional energy to maintain and acquire resources.

ENTROPY

Entropy is a measure of disorder or randomness in a system.  It is a measure of the amount of energy that, during an energy transformation, becomes no longer available to do work.  We will discuss this concept more in the environment section.

Order is important to focus on because it represents the maintenance of biological and economic structure - very specific molecules in an organism - structures/buildings in a city - a sandwich, etc.

The price of maintaining order is extracting and using energy from the environment.

DO:  Lessons from this work on EROI.  We as individuals, organizations, and society are constantly seeking excess energy to survive and thrive.  We also seek order and certainty as they increase our chances of survival - (Disorder and uncertainty demand energy - increases risk).  Since the direction is constantly toward disorder, we need energy to keep our world in order.  Energy, Order, and Certainty - all three are important points as we design maps.  Societies seek to grow, which demands energy.  But it is also important to note that a society that just stays where it is at requires a lot of energy.  Think of all the infrastructure of a city.  Even if a particular city does not grow or is in decline, it will still require a lot of energy to maintain wealth from the past (because of disorder).

Human society, a nation, an organization, and an individual would be better served when a particular disorder can either be eliminated, reduced, or at least better managed as to not waste important energy. 

Observations

>  Energy is survival so it will constantly be pursued and prioritized

A barrel of oil contains 5,700,000 BTU's or 1700 kWh of work potential

   -  It takes an average person 4.5 years to generate this amount of work

With this type of math (positive leverage), human society will seek as much energy as it can obtain for growth.

>  Energy provides an advantage for individual and group hierarchy, this will mean consistent competition and conflict

>  High quality ores and energy deposits are now mostly things of the past. There are still plenty of ores and energy - but it’s of lower quality, and both more costly and ecologically destructive to extract.  This will mean additional risk:  Tighter oil means higher capital needs and faster declines, more wells - investment of energy, more water involvement, and higher environmental costs

>  Math of growth in energy and resource needs:

If we were to grow the global economy at 3% as most governments and institutions expect, we would use as much energy and materials in the next few decades as we have in the past 10,000 years.

>  Energy Efficiency

The vast amount of technological improvements requires more energy in the future

We are getting more efficient - For example:  Since 1990, we have become 36% more energy efficient.  In that same period, we have increased energy consumption by 63% (Jevons Paradox)

Jevons Paradox definition >  When the cost of using a resource decreases due to increased efficiency, it becomes more attractive for consumers and industries to use it. This increased affordability leads to higher consumption and can potentially offset the initial gains in efficiency. 

2025

Highlights from Energy Institute 2025 Statistic Review of World Energy

> Wind and Solar combined grew 16% (China responsible for 57% of new additions)

> Wind and Solar grew nearly 9x faster than total energy demand

> Fossil Fuel growth over 1%

> World had 2% annual rise in total energy demand

          - 592 EJ (Exajoules)

                    - Exajoule > a unit of energy in the International System of Units (SI), representing one quintillion joules, or 1018 joules. It is used to measure very large amounts of energy, such as the total global energy consumption per year, and is equivalent to 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules.

                    - Joule > the standard metric unit for measuring energy, work, or heat, defined as the energy transferred when a force of one newton moves an object over a distance of one meter. For example, lifting an apple one meter requires approximately one joule of energy

> All time records were reached across ALL forms of energy (coal, oil, gas, renewables, hydro and nuclear)

> Electricity demand growth at 4% outpaced total energy demand growth

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