Change/Risk for Energy
STATEMENT
> Excess Energy is Vital to Growth and a Better Human Experience
EROI = Energy Return on Investment
EROI = Quantity of Energy Supplied/Quantity of Energy Used in the Supply Process
RISK
If human society has a lower EROI, the benefits of modern society will begin to be erased.
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Prior to the last few hundred years, humans lived in a linear world with a steady level of population due to the positive feedbacks that kept humans within a certain boundary. Humans depended on energy from the sun. With the discovery of new energy (coal, oil, & gas), humans used these fuels with their ingenuity to develop the world you see today.
Humans, plants, and other species need to invest energy and get a good return on their investment. Survival depends on this concept.
Exploring this further in nature...
Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT) > Traits for an individual will be selected that maximize surplus energy gained per unit of time from foraging. OFT predicts the most profitable feeding strategy for an organism given the costs of capturing the food versus the energy gained from the food the food capture.
DO: Societies, Organizations, and Individuals will have various levels of approach and avoid based on their excess energy equation. Human Society, Organizations, and Individuals seek higher EROI. Society needs higher EROI for electricity, roads, hospitals, schools, and more. Organizations and Individuals seek income/profit (Money is a claim on energy and resources).
The Power of this discovery and its impact
In comparison to a global labor force of around 5 billion real humans at the time - machines and work powered by access to buried carbon energy added the equivalent power of 500 billion human workers. This leverage has powered the growth in human population and wealth.
Obtaining a larger energy surplus gives us a competitive advantage for survival and reproduction.
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STATEMENT
> DISORDER - The natural tendency of all things is toward disorder. If you want order, energy must be invested.
DO: A city, a building, a home, a vehicle, a business, a human body, etc. Constant energy is required to bring order from disorder.
RISK
As cities become larger, more complex with expensive infrastructure, they become more vulnerable to disorder. The cost of repairs and maintenance (energy) becomes higher.
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As humans, we are constantly looking to find additional energy to maintain and acquire resources.
ENTROPY
Entropy is a measure of disorder or randomness in a system. It is a measure of the amount of energy that, during an energy transformation, becomes no longer available to do work. We will discuss this concept more in the environment section.
Order is important to focus on because it represents the maintenance of biological and economic structure - very specific molecules in an organism - structures/buildings in a city - a sandwich, etc.
The price of maintaining order is extracting and using energy from the environment.
DO: Lessons from this work on EROI. We as individuals, organizations, and society are constantly seeking excess energy to survive and thrive. We also seek order and certainty as they increase our chances of survival - (Disorder and uncertainty demand energy - increases risk). Since the direction is constantly toward disorder, we need energy to keep our world in order. Energy, Order, and Certainty - all three are important points as we design maps. Societies seek to grow, which demands energy. But it is also important to note that a society that just stays where it is at requires a lot of energy. Think of all the infrastructure of a city. Even if a particular city does not grow or is in decline, it will still require a lot of energy to maintain wealth from the past (because of disorder).
Energy Sector Change/Risk Map for EROI
This map is for United States
The map above is for each listed area of energy. We are monitoring change and risk for each. For this map, we are mapping change and risk for the United States above as a "client". The US needs a lot of cheap energy to maintain its wealth and status in the world. Organizations throughout the US depend on government strategy as well as individual energy companies to acquire cheap energy.
The map above is a very simple map. It can still be very affective in monitoring risk. At the beginning of each quarter, we will update this map to reflect current events that can impact an EROI equation for each energy source. For your organization, this type of map can be very simple or extremely complex depending on current needs. We want to be focused on the potential change and risk.
Need assistance in monitoring change and risk?
Reach out to us below if you would like assistance in monitoring change and risk. We can build maps to fit your needs.
Would you like a link to the Energy Map from above? Reach out to us below and we will send instructions on how to pull it up in MIRO.
Additional thoughts on Energy
Detached Observations to consider
Here are some additional statements on energy: An exercise for a few moments can be to reflect on each of the following statements and how each is vulnerable to change and risk.
STATEMENT
> The easiest and best energy sources go first
High quality ores and energy deposits are now mostly things of the past. There are still plenty of ores and energy - but it’s of lower quality, and both more costly and ecologically destructive to extract.
From an energy and resource perspective, humans have and will continue to search for the best EROI on energy and resources. Thus, sticking a straw in the ground for oil has moved to massive structures in the oceans, digging for miles, and fracking for lower EROI (tight) oil.
RISK
> Tighter oil means
- Higher capital needs and faster declines - more well
- More water involvement
- Environment footprint rises
STATEMENT
> Complexity requires more energy
Getting back to the city population growth example within the Exponential section, reflect on the increased complexity required to run a much larger city, and thus, the amount of surplus energy needed for the city to survive and thrive. As society gets more complex, reflect on the fact that more energy is required (more energy just to maintain past obtained wealth - more energy for new technologies > Ex. AI Data Centers, Crypto mining)
Example - Cost to maintain data centers
- Roughly $7 to 12 million per MW
- Cost to maintain large data centers - $10 to 25 million a year
- Environmental impact:
- Energy consumption and carbon emissions
- Water consumption
- Large waste in landfills
- Local impacts
- Finite resource materials - rare earth
RISK
Continued strain on finite resources - strain on society
STATEMENT
> Money is a direct claim on energy and resources
(More of this statement will be addressed within the Economy Section)
As we create more money, we don't create more resources; we merely access them faster. Debt allows us to spend resources from the future.
A lesson to remember as we witness growth and the expansion of any money supply, it all requires energy.
More Growth = Ever-increasing demand for energy
If we were to grow the global economy at 3% as most governments and institutions expect, we would use as much energy and materials in the next few decades as we have in the past 10,000 years.
STATEMENT
> Humans have and will continue to leverage energy for wealth
(More of this will be addressed within the Global Village Section)
A barrel of oil contains 5,700,000 BTU's or 1700 kWh of work potential
> It takes an average person 4.5 years to generate this amount of work
With this type of math (positive leverage), human society will seek as much energy as it can obtain for growth.
STATEMENT
Human society is just paying for the extraction cost of oil. It was already in the ground long ago.
The cost of energy impacts the leverage of energy. Processes that are heavily dependent on energy become less profitable quickly when energy costs rise.
Every unit of GDP requires
- Energy
- Materials
- Innovation/technology
The vast amount of technological improvements requires more energy in the future
We are getting more efficient - For example: Since 1990, we have become 36% more energy efficient. In that same period, we have increased energy consumption by 63% (Jevons Paradox)
Important Note:
Jevons Paradox definition > When the cost of using a resource decreases due to increased efficiency, it becomes more attractive for consumers and industries to use it. This increased affordability leads to higher consumption and can potentially offset the initial gains in efficiency.
Energy News
2025
Highlights from Energy Institute 2025 Statistic Review of World Energy
> Wind and Solar combined grew 16% (China responsible for 57% of new additions)
> Wind and Solar grew nearly 9x faster than total energy demand
> Fossil Fuel growth over 1%
> World had 2% annual rise in total energy demand
- 592 EJ (Exajoules)
- Exajoule > a unit of energy in the International System of Units (SI), representing one quintillion joules, or 1018 joules. It is used to measure very large amounts of energy, such as the total global energy consumption per year, and is equivalent to 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules.
- Joule > the standard metric unit for measuring energy, work, or heat, defined as the energy transferred when a force of one newton moves an object over a distance of one meter. For example, lifting an apple one meter requires approximately one joule of energy
> All time records were reached across ALL forms of energy (coal, oil, gas, renewables, hydro and nuclear)
> Electricity demand growth at 4% outpaced total energy demand growth
