ENVIRONMENT

1. As human society grows faster, the amount of noticeable impacts on the environment will dramatically increase

As stated within Exponential, Math Wins.  Expect to see a lot of impacts coming into human perception that were not noticed before. We will cover that here to give you examples.  

The exponential way humans have grown over the last few hundred years has been positive to the standard of living, life spans, and the ability to enjoy more of the day than previous generations.  A disadvantage to humans was the speed at which it all happened.  When the world seemed bigger and economic theory was being further developed, there was an error made that our society is now having to confront.  This error was not including the impacts on the environment within economic models and on the balance sheets.  Instead, it was sent out to the common without acknowledging the true costs.  At that time, it would have been difficult to foresee the Big Picture.  Even today, there is still a large misunderstanding of this equation and its impact.  Detached Observation lowers bias and emotions and relies on what has advanced human society - math and the scientific method.  

Reflect on todays society.  Many people will go through their lives and not have within their perception the gathering of food and water from the environment.  It is all done through retail stores and online ordering.  The limited human perception also plays a role as environmental events are taking place throughout the world but it does not come within much of human perception.  Human society is advancing as knowledge is spreading to help people learn and seek out more information.  

2.  Since the environment is lower on the hierarchy, expect more backlash against it and the people who raise the concerns

As mentioned in previous categories, extraction costs are on the rise.  The financial system is leveraged.  And damages to the environment are not on balance sheets.  Until survival is front and center, what can be put off will be put off.  Wealth, self-esteem, physical and cultural survival... these will take priority in the near term.

Imagine an equation where you have 10,000 of the most powerful and influential people in the world.  Within that equation includes each person worlds view and the variable of influence.  Multiply that out and where would the focus be?  Wealth, self-esteem, physical and cultural survival.  The brain focuses on what is useful.  When the environment impacts the top of society on a physical and cultural survival way, more will be done within this area.

3.  Human knowledge continues to advance in our understanding of the earth.  However, it is complex so there will be situations beyond human prediction and even understanding.

As with all the categories listed, human society is entering into unchartered territory.  Those within the fields will gain increased knowledge of the earth and test multiple scenarios.  However, there will be events beyond knowledge that will impact human civilization.  

4.  Todays infrastructure was built based on certain assumptions.  With environmental impacts, these boundaries will be tested and exceeded.  Expect high costs from environmental events that exceed these boundaries as well as the high costs of infrastructure improvements to match the changing world

Example rail tracks, piping

Temperature Anomalies

A detached way to understand change in the heating of the planet and local areas include monitoring temperature anomalies.  Consistent large outliers show that the understanding that they are outliers needs to be reviewed.  Expect variations in either direction.  

How is your organization set up for large temperature anomalies?  What are your procedures as electrical grids come off?  What safety plans do you have for customer and employee hydration in areas more impacted by heat?

Current Infrastructure:

In many places in the northern part of the globe, buildings were built upon permafrost with the assumption that the permafrost would be permanent.  As current infrastructure comes face to face with a changing environment, we are going to see more breakdowns.  Permafrost is not within the 48 continental states.  However, there will be more breakdowns within local infrastructure due to excess heat, cold, and quick water infusion.  

How will your organization (and local community) be impacted by infrastructure breakdowns over the next decade?

Events and changes coming into human perception

Each year, the issues within the environment become more known to the general public.  Like so many inputs coming from society, each person is limited in what they can do personally.  The feeling of not controlling their world will impact their approach/avoid decisions to companies they work for and do business with.  The following environmental impact issues will impact employee and customer behavior (as always, each person has their own history and worldviews):

- Impacts to personal survival (Food, water, shelter)

- Climate and weather anomalies

- Species extinction

- Insurance risk

- Droughts - local water issues

- Pollution

How is your organization monitoring perception changes with your customers and employees?  For your brands message on being a steward to the environment, how do you monitor customer and employee feelings toward your brand? (Measure their approach/avoid on this issue)

Tail risk developing outside of societies perception

There are many who spend a lifetime researching and studying the various parts of the world we live in.  There is just too much information.  That is why people prefer simple and positive stories (along with solutions).  Much of the research and environmental impacts occurring around the world go unnoticed by much of society.  This will change over time.  Here are some examples (more canaries in the coalmine): 

- Species Adaptation (and extinction)

- Permafrost melting throughout the north

- Ice Melt and future local survival impact - there is some understanding, but a lot of it is missed in mainstream news.  Huge impacts on water supplies in certain parts of the globe.

- Fish Movements north 

- Earth carbon sink evaluation and current changes

- Vast amounts of research review in all areas of the environment

- Tail risks not understood by general society

- Ocean changes

- AMOC

- Biodiversity Loss

- Species invasion

- Microplastics

Does your organization review tail risks associated with environmental impacts?

ENVIRONMENT

There is a reason the Environment is lower on the list.  It is not because of it's importance - as it should be front and center.  In a world that is Exponential AND nearing/hitting important tipping points, forward thinking on the Environment is vital.  However, the human brain focuses on the 'here and now' and how to survive In the Moment.  Thus, the Environment will remain lower on the hierarchy for the time being.  In 2025, we will be watching:

     - The Speed of Change in Global Temperatures and Environmental Impacts

     - Innovations that can slow the coming changes

     - Major Tipping Point Changes

     - Ongoing Research

Important>  Since we think in a linear fashion, there will be constant surprises in all of these categories in the years ahead.   Research that is published in areas of the Environment is already in the PAST (In an exponential world, it is important to reflect on this).  Also, science is conservative (which generally means things can be Understated - especially for policy) and since the Environment is lower on the hierarchy and does not make money, the research can/will be downplayed.

Websites to consider if you would like to learn more:

Probable Futures.org

This site allows you to see the impacts of changing temperatures and other impacts on a local scale.  

2025 US and World Environment Watch

WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55C above pre-industrial level

After Millenia as carbon dioxide sink, more than one-third of Arctic-boreal region is now a source

Humans Have Crossed 7 of 9 ‘Planetary Boundaries