EXPONENTIAL

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" 

This quote is attributed to Albert Bartlett (Albert was an American professor of physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder).

Dr. Bartlett gave his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population and Energy 1,742 times since September 1969 (average of once every 8.5 days) according to the website dedicated to him:

https://www.albartlett.org/index.html  

DO:  The lesson Al Bartlett wanted to share with his classes was the power of math.  Detached Observation helps to understand Change by learning the power of the mathematics and implications of doubling.  Below is the formula for the Rule of 70:

        dt = 70/r 

As an example, if there is a global (Or nation, state, city, etc.) growth of an item with a 2% annual rate - it would have a doubling time of 35 years.

        35 = 70/2  

Let's explore the concept of exponential growth and how it can impact a city or an organization.  

First, we will start at 1,000.  This could be a city's population, the size of an organization's employees, or the size of an organization's customer base.  

1,000

2,000

4,000

8,000

16,000

32,000

64,000

128,000

256,000

512,000

1.024,000

2,048,000

4,096,000

8,192,000

Using Detached Observation, let's reflect on the following questions:

City>  How does a city obtain the water, food, and resources it will need to sustain its current population and how will it prepare for future growth?  What kind of energy needs will this city have?

How will this city growth impact the environment in which it exists?  How will people get along as the city becomes more diversified and larger?  What are the opportunities and risks as this city expands?

Employee>  How will an organization manage a quick rise in employee growth?  Reflect on the complexity (and additional energy required) as an organization expands.  How does a quick rise in employee size impact an organization's culture?  How does an organization manage individual employee's perceptions as it becomes much larger?

Customers>  How does an organization manage the customer experience when it expands quickly?  Reflect on the complexity of managing customer perceptions as an organization expands.  

Throughout human history, there were feedbacks that limited the growth and change of human society.  Some of these included:

- Limited knowledge

- Disease and shorter lifespans

- Lack of resources

- Natural disasters

What is interesting to reflect on is that much of human society today sees today's world as normal.  It is hard for the brain to understand that almost every moment of human history was NOT like today.  We want to drive this point consistently to induce more understanding of the change and empathy/knowledge for ourselves and others as we all try to manage this change within our own lives and our organizations.  Also, what we may feel is normal today will not be normal to someone living 50 to 100 years from now.

Detached Observation "IS" Statement on the Exponential:

The human brain survives on what it is born with, along with the inputs and predictions from birth.  Throughout human history, it was never Normal to have a doubling use of planetary resources in a person's lifetime or a doubling of the world human population along with massive changes in the environment and technology.  

Thus, the human brain was not built for this.  The human brain evolved in a simpler time.  As mentioned above, humans can adapt to change.  It is important to emphasize that it takes time and energy to adjust, and everyone does not adapt at the same speed (Thus the imbalance and friction you see in society today).  This imbalance causes anxiety in people, as mentioned in the 7 Starters, humans try to survive physically and within their culture.  Both of these forms of survival are challenging in a world that has doubled in time frames that are a blip on the screen versus the history of this planet and the time humans have been here.  

Not everything will find itself within the definition of exponential.  We are not in a constant state.  It is growing until it doesn't.  Change can be either linear or exponential.  The point is that it is a change that requires a lot of energy.

Exponential Thought Equation

For this page, a good thought equation would be to think of a math problem.  We will use the world population.

1800 - 1.6 billion variables

1900 - 1.65 billion variables

2000 - 6.1 billion variables

2025 - 8 billion variables

Now, reflect on each variable and how the world has and will change based on the rest of the categories of the Big Picture.  Do a thought equation of each variable and how it changes the end result (Which, for today's equation, the result is what you see in the world).

Energy >  How much energy is needed for each person?

Economy > How does the world's economy change with each passing year?

Resources >  How many resources are needed by each person in the math equation?

Environment >  How do the above 3 impact the environment we depend on?

Knowledge >  How will increased knowledge impact the whole math equation?

Technology >  How does technology impact all of these categories?

Global Village >  How does human society get along in this math equation?

With the power of math, we can see that change is and will be front and center.  

Mapping Strategy

One of the areas we want to focus on is that it takes a lot of energy to adapt.  From the 7 Starters, we discussed that uncertainty and change are harder to predict and require additional brain energy.  From an organizational and societal standpoint, this is also true.  Understanding change makes it easier for the brain to predict and makes energy use more efficient.  Simplifying complexity also reduces energy consumption.  These two components will be a part of our mapping strategy to assist you in adapting and thriving through change.

A mapping strategy for your organization can be to outline and update how you are helping customers and employees adapt to rapid change.  We will also emphasize that there is a spectrum of differences in how people will adapt to change.  We recommend having a strategy that encompasses both fast learners/adapters and those slower to adapt. 

 Below are a few graphs to show change within our society:

As 2025 moves forward, we will add information below showing exponential change: