Explore and Monitor Change/Risk

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" 

This quote is attributed to Albert Bartlett (Albert was an American professor of physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder).

Dr. Bartlett gave his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population and Energy 1,742 times since September 1969 (average of once every 8.5 days) according to the website dedicated to him:

https://www.albartlett.org/index.html  

DO:  The lesson Al Bartlett wanted to share with his classes was the power of math.  Detached Observation helps to understand Change by learning the power of the mathematics and implications of doubling.  Below is the formula for the Rule of 70:

        dt = 70/r 

As an example, if there is a global (Or nation, state, city, etc.) growth of an item with a 2% annual rate - it would have a doubling time of 35 years.

        35 = 70/2  

Let's explore the concept of exponential growth and how it can impact a city, an organization, and an individual.  

First, we will start at 1,000.  This could be a city's population, the size and or revenue of an organization, or the size of an organization's customer base.  

1,000

2,000

4,000

8,000

16,000

32,000

64,000

128,000

256,000

512,000

1.024,000

2,048,000

4,096,000

8,192,000

Using Detached Observation, let's reflect on the following questions:

City>  

How does a city obtain the tax revenue, water, food, and resources it will need to sustain its current population and when it doubles?  

What kind of energy needs will this city have at each level?

How will this city growth impact the environment in which it exists?  

How will people get along as the city becomes more diversified and larger?  

What are the opportunities and risks as this city expands?

Organization Revenue and/or Employee size>

How will an organization manage a quick rise in employee or revenue growth?  

How does an organization best manage the complexity (and additional energy required) as it expands quickly?  

How does a quick rise in employee size impact an organization's culture?  

What resources are required as an organization doubles revenues?

How does an organization manage individual employee's perceptions as it becomes much larger?

How does an organization give an employee more meaning as it expands to large sizes?

Customer>  

How does an organization best manage the customer experience when it expands so quickly?  

With so many touchpoints, what are the best ways to manage company/brand perception?

Reflect on the complexity of managing customer perceptions as an organization expands.  

How does an organization help a customer feel special when its customer base expands exponentially?

Individual>

How does a person feel about the vast changes to the city they grew up in?

What were the positive and negative changes that impacted this persons perception of survival through this fast growth?

What are some concerns and fears a person can have as the immediate world around them changes so quickly?

Reflect on two generations interpretation of these changes.  What are some differences on how these two generations can interpret their current and future life?

DO:  Human Perception is limited along with Human Energy.  Using Math when analyzing the world and what is going on beyond perception is highly useful.  Adapting to math helps a person better predict future possibilities.    

Throughout human history, there were feedbacks that limited the growth and change of human society.  Some of these included:

- Limited knowledge

- Disease and shorter lifespans

- Lack of resources

- Natural disasters

What is interesting to reflect on is that much of human society today sees today's world as normal.  It is hard for the brain to understand that almost every moment of known human history was NOT like today.  We want to drive this point consistently to induce more understanding of the change and empathy/knowledge for ourselves and others as we all try to manage this change within our own lives and our organizations.  Also, what we may feel is normal today will not be normal to someone living 50 to 100 years from now.

Change and Risk are on the menu for organizations and individuals every day.  That is why having the ability to adapt to change is such an important skill to learn about and acquire.  The objective this site on links to maps are designed to assist you in adapting to change.

Quick Perception Experiment

What is happening right now exactly 1000 miles to your east?

How will you learn and is it important to know?

This experiment is a good example of two important items.  The first is that human perception is limited.  We cannot be everywhere around the globe at each moment of every day.  So we count on other people and technology to teach us what is happening.  

Second, our brain energy and time is limited so we need to focus on what is useful to us - our survival.  Thus, the second questions answer can be that unless it is useful, we will most likely not extend any energy to pursue the answer.

Math Wins

As you do analysis to evaluate potential change and risks, keep these two words in in mind.  One cause of human failure in understanding and predicting change is going against math.  The need for humans to feel safe in their worldview can be prioritized over math.  Math has given humans a better understanding of reality and to allow progress.  For most of us, we board a plane and do not think of the math involved in allowing us to accomplish a flight to another destination (Example:  the math involved of lift, weight, thrust, and drag just to name a few).  If we deny math in the design of an airplane flight, we lose.  Math is involved with all the topics in this section.  

Linear vs Exponential 

Linear change occurs at a relatively steady rate, while exponential change compounds on itself, causing the amount of change to become increasingly larger over time. For most of human history, people primarily experienced slower, more local changes and did not regularly confront technologies, information systems, financial systems, resource use, and global connections capable of expanding at exponential rates.  As a result, humans can understand exponential change mathematically, but it is often much harder to recognize intuitively—especially early in the process, when the change still appears small. 

IMPORTANT NOTE FOR CHANGE ANALYSIS:

For every topic within this Adapting to Change section, there will be discussion of math along with how quick and exponential change is impacting that topic.

Smaller world with increased complexity - Challenge to human decision making

For most of human history, events occurring on the other side of the planet had little or no direct effect on the daily life of a local group.  Today, individuals and organizations must adapt to a world that is deeply connected, highly complex, and increasingly influenced by events taking place far beyond their immediate surroundings.  Trade, technology, finance, energy, conflict, disease, and information can now move rapidly across borders, making what happens globally increasingly relevant locally.  While the world has become more connected and information-rich, the human brain has not evolved at the same speed as these changes.  The internet, for example, provides access to an extraordinary amount of information and potential knowledge, but no individual can absorb or process more than a small fraction of it.  Human perception, attention, time, and mental energy are limited, and as the volume and speed of change increase—especially when change is exponential—both individuals and organizations can become overwhelmed.   

Society Risk:   Decision makers a few hundred years ago often operated within a much smaller and less interconnected world, where a greater share of the systems affecting daily life could be understood directly through local experience.  Today, leaders must navigate multiple cultures, global supply chains, complex financial systems, rapidly evolving technologies, geopolitical relationships, artificial intelligence, environmental pressures, and an enormous volume of information—all while the pace of change continues to accelerate.  A decision maker today therefore faces far more variables, dependencies, and potential consequences than a decision maker even one generation ago.  Yet the human brain still operates with the same basic limits of attention, time, energy, and information-processing capacity.  As complexity and speed increase, the possibility of missing important information, misunderstanding second-order effects, or making decisions with unintended consequences also increases.  This means that modern decision-making carries greater systemic risk and places a higher premium on good information, diverse perspectives, external tools, and the ability to continuously update assumptions as conditions change. 

Organization Risk:  Organizations face increasing pressure to make good decisions in a world that is changing rapidly.  A mistake can quickly put an organization behind a competitor, but even a good decision may provide only a temporary advantage if new technology, business models, or market shifts allow another organization to leapfrog ahead. In this environment, competitive advantage is becoming less about making one successful decision and more about the ability to continuously learn, adapt, and respond to change. 

The organizations that can recognize important changes early, adjust quickly, and reduce unnecessary risk will be better positioned to remain relevant and resilient. As the pace of change increases, adaptability itself becomes a core organizational capability and strategic priority.

Individual Risk:  People can become overwhelmed by the growing volume of information, complexity, and change they are expected to process.  The human brain is constantly trying to keep up, yet individuals still have limited time, attention, energy, and capacity to evaluate every option before making important decisions.  Career choices are a good example: a path that looked stable and attractive five years ago may be disrupted or significantly changed within only a few years by technology, automation, artificial intelligence, or shifts in the economy.  As the pace of change increases, individuals face greater pressure to continually learn, reassess assumptions, and adapt their decisions to a future that may look very different from the recent past. 

As will discussed in the Knowledge section, human society has accumulated a tremendous amount of knowledge about both how people think and behave and how the world around us works. 

Organizations can use that knowledge to better understand people and improve the moments and experiences they create. Two useful concepts are:

Theory of Mind — The ability to understand that other people have their own thoughts, beliefs, desires, intentions, and emotions.

Empathy — The ability to understand and, to some degree, share or appreciate the feelings and perspective of another person.

Experience mapping is ultimately about exploring how other people—customers, patients, and employees—approach and avoid within their own world.  By using Theory of Mind, learning through feedback, and applying empathy to understand how another person interprets an experience, organizations can better design moments that feel safe, useful, respectful, clear, and worth returning to.  A successful map helps an organization understand what is driving approach behavior, what is creating avoidance, and what can be improved to strengthen trust and engagement over time.

Empathy is also valuable beyond individual touchpoints. It can help organizations better understand change and risk by encouraging decision makers to look at situations from the perspective of the people affected by them. Instead of assuming why people behave a certain way, the organization can ask what experiences, expectations, fears, needs, and priorities may be shaping those decisions.

Examples include:

• Why does a potential customer continue to choose a competitor? What past experiences, expectations, perceptions of value, trust, convenience, or risk are reinforcing that approach decision?
• What concerns are currently influencing people with the skills our organization needs? Are they seeking greater pay, security, flexibility, belonging, advancement, autonomy, purpose, or certainty?
• What is causing a customer, patient, or employee to avoid a particular touchpoint? Is the issue fear, confusion, effort, cost, distrust, uncertainty, or a previous negative experience?
• What does this person believe will happen next? Understanding their prediction of the experience can reveal why they are approaching, hesitating, resisting, or leaving.

The goal of mapping is not simply to observe behavior, but to better understand the human perspective behind that behavior. When organizations combine data, feedback, Theory of Mind, and empathy, they are better positioned to create experiences that people want to approach rather than avoid.

Every person is attempting to adapt to rapid and, in some areas, exponential change.

Change continues whether people are ready for it or not.  Advances in areas such as artificial intelligence, computing, automation, communication, and global connectivity can move faster than individuals and organizations are able to fully understand, absorb, or adapt to them.

Each person adapts to change in a different way and at a different pace. This is where Theory of Mind and Empathy become especially important.  By trying to understand how another person sees and interprets their world, organizations can better understand the pressures influencing behavior and create experiences that are more supportive, relevant, and human.

From a detached perspective, a person may be dealing with:

• Anxiety — Concern about constant change, uncertainty, and disorder.
• Information Overload — Feeling overwhelmed by the amount of information, choices, news, and demands competing for attention.
• Mental and Emotional Stress — Repeated negative inputs, uncertainty, isolation, or loss can contribute to emotional strain and reduced resilience.
• Anger and Frustration — When expectations are repeatedly violated or people feel powerless, frustration may be redirected toward other people, organizations, or situations.
• Prediction Errors — Rapid change can make past experience less useful, making it harder to understand what is happening or predict what will happen next.
• Physical and Cultural Security — People may focus on protecting themselves, their families, their income, their identity, their values, and their sense of belonging.
• Seeking Positive Inputs — People naturally look for experiences that provide reward, comfort, connection, enjoyment, relief, and hope.
• Goals and Achievement — People continue to seek progress, accomplishment, purpose, and improvement even in uncertain environments.
• Personal Wins and Self-Esteem — Success, recognition, competence, and a sense of control can help people maintain confidence during periods of change.
• Managing Complexity — Every person must decide where to place limited time, attention, energy, and resources while navigating an increasingly complex world.

Every person is exposed to change and must continually interpret new sensory inputs through the lens of past experiences, expectations, emotions, and available resources. An ongoing Change & Risk Map can help individuals and organizations better understand these shifting pressures, recognize emerging patterns earlier, and adapt proactively—staying in front of change rather than constantly chasing it.

By taking a more detached view of society, we can better explore how people are currently adapting - and will continue to adapt - to ongoing change, uncertainty, and complexity.

A useful exercise is to reflect on the different ways people attempt to cope with change.  The following list is a starting point for thinking about how customers, patients, employees, families, and communities may respond as the pace and volume of change increase.  We recommend spending a moment with each item and considering how people may use that behavior to reduce stress, restore a sense of control, protect self-esteem, create certainty, or simply conserve limited mental and emotional energy.

People often reframe, reinterpret, or mentally reorganize situations in order to regain control and reduce uncertainty.

Denial — Temporarily rejecting or minimizing an uncomfortable reality. This can protect self-esteem and reduce immediate emotional and mental effort, although it can become harmful if it prevents necessary action.

Rationalization — Creating explanations that make thoughts, decisions, or behaviors feel more acceptable and help preserve self-esteem.

Distraction — Redirecting attention toward something else in order to reduce discomfort, worry, or emotional overload.

Fantasy or Daydreaming — Mentally imagining a different or more desirable reality as a source of possibility, relief, or escape.

Problem-Solving — Actively identifying causes, alternatives, and solutions in order to reduce uncertainty and improve the situation.

Future Planning — Creating goals and possible paths forward to restore direction, control, and a sense of certainty.

Compartmentalization — Mentally separating different areas of life so that stress in one area does not overwhelm everything else.

Intellectualization — Focusing heavily on facts, logic, or analysis as a way to create emotional distance from a difficult situation.

Humor — Using laughter and perspective to reduce tension, reinterpret difficulty, and make stressful situations feel more manageable.

People also regulate emotions in different ways as they process change.

Crying — A natural form of emotional expression and release.

Art, Writing, or Music — Externalizing thoughts and emotions through creative expression, sometimes allowing people to imagine possibilities beyond their current circumstances.

Meditation or Mindfulness — Bringing attention to the present moment in order to reduce stress, improve emotional regulation, and create mental space.

Gratitude — Deliberately focusing on positive aspects of life even during periods of difficulty or uncertainty.

Emotional Suppression — Holding emotions internally rather than expressing them. This is common and may be useful temporarily, although persistent suppression can carry costs.

Journaling — Using written reflection to organize thoughts, identify patterns, and make sense of changing experiences.

Self-Talk — Using internal dialogue to reassure, motivate, coach, or guide oneself through challenging situations.

Seeking Beauty — Turning toward nature, art, music, design, or other aesthetically rewarding experiences to feel grounded or restored.

Hope and Optimism — Maintaining the belief that circumstances can improve and that future opportunities remain possible.

Spiritual Practices — Using prayer, meditation, ritual, faith, or spiritual communities to create meaning, connection, comfort, and perspective.

People also adapt through relationships and social groups.

Talking With Friends or Family — Sharing concerns, receiving validation, and gaining alternative perspectives.

Belonging to a Group or Community — Finding security, identity, support, and strength through connection with others.

Helping Others — Shifting attention outward through service, kindness, cooperation, or caregiving.

Seeking Support or Therapy — Turning to professionals or trusted people for guidance, perspective, coping strategies, or emotional support.

Social Comparison — Comparing ourselves with others to evaluate how well we are doing, sometimes providing motivation and sometimes creating additional stress.

Conforming to Social Norms — Adapting behavior to fit within a group, which can provide acceptance, belonging, and a sense of cultural security.

Storytelling — Using narratives to organize events, explain what is happening, and create shared meaning.

Humor With Others — Using shared laughter to reduce collective stress and strengthen social bonds.

Imitating Role Models — Learning how to respond to difficulty by observing how respected or successful people cope and adapt.

Social Media Engagement — Seeking information, connection, belonging, validation, entertainment, or distraction through digital networks.

People also adapt through behaviors that change their environment, routines, or use of energy.

Routine and Structure — Creating predictability and order when the surrounding environment feels uncertain.

Exercise — Using physical movement to reduce stress, regulate emotion, improve health, and restore a sense of control.

Comfort Food or Drinks — Seeking temporary pleasure, familiarity, or emotional relief through consumption.

Shopping or Material Consumption — Seeking reward, gratification, status, comfort, or a temporary feeling of control.

Working or Staying Busy — Directing attention toward productivity and achievement, sometimes as a constructive response and sometimes as a form of avoidance.

Avoidance or Procrastination — Delaying situations that feel stressful, difficult, uncertain, or emotionally costly.

Travel or Physical Escape — Changing environments to gain distance, perspective, stimulation, or relief.

Cleaning or Organizing — Creating visible external order when other parts of life may feel uncertain or uncontrollable.

Self-Care Rituals — Using personal routines to restore comfort, predictability, identity, and emotional balance.

Hobbies — Directing attention toward meaningful or pleasurable activities that provide enjoyment, accomplishment, and relief from stress.

Displacement — Redirecting frustration, anger, or emotional pain away from its original source and toward another person, group, or situation.

Chemical or Behavioral Escape — Using alcohol, drugs, gambling, excessive screen use, or other potentially harmful behaviors to temporarily avoid stress, pain, or reality.

Some forms of adaptation are generally more constructive—such as problem-solving, exercise, gratitude, planning, social support, learning, and cooperation.  Others can become harmful to the individual or to people around them, including denial, displacement, destructive avoidance, aggression, or substance misuse.  The important point is that these behaviors often represent attempts to manage stress, uncertainty, limited energy, perceived threats, and the need for greater control.

This is where mapping and experience design can become especially valuable.  By learning how customers, patients, and employees are attempting to adapt, organizations can identify where an experience is adding unnecessary stress, uncertainty, effort, or loss of control and where it can instead support healthier forms of adaptation.  A proactive organization can design environments, communication, policies, and touchpoints that encourage clarity, control, belonging, problem-solving, resilience, and trust—strengthening approach behavior while reducing unnecessary avoidance.

To finish this page, below is an image gallery showing quick and exponential changes around the world.  Consider combining Society Awareness (What is happening around the world) with Self-Awareness (How an individual interprets to that world and attempts to adapt).