MATH/EXPONENTIAL

1.  Human history has been linear, the human brain is attempting to adapt to this new world of rapid growth and exponential.  (Process being done in multiple ways and various speeds)

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" 

This quote is attributed to Albert Bartlett (Albert was an American professor of physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder).

Dr. Bartlett gave his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population and Energy 1,742 times since September 1969 (average of once every 8.5 days) according to the website dedicated to him:

https://www.albartlett.org/index.html  

DO:  The lesson Al Bartlett wanted to share with his classes was the power of math.  Detached Observation helps to understand Change by learning the power of the mathematics and implications of doubling.  Below is the formula for the Rule of 70:

        dt = 70/r 

As an example, if there is a global (Or nation, state, city, etc.) growth of an item with a 2% annual rate - it would have a doubling time of 35 years.

        35 = 70/2  

Let's explore the concept of exponential growth and how it can impact a city or an organization.  

First, we will start at 1,000.  This could be a city's population, the size of an organization's employees, or the size of an organization's customer base.  

1,000

2,000

4,000

8,000

16,000

32,000

64,000

128,000

256,000

512,000

1.024,000

2,048,000

4,096,000

8,192,000

Using Detached Observation, let's reflect on the following questions:

City>  

How does a city obtain the water, food, and resources it will need to sustain its current population and how will it prepare for future growth?  

What kind of energy needs will this city have?

How will this city growth impact the environment in which it exists?  

How will people get along as the city becomes more diversified and larger?  

What are the opportunities and risks as this city expands?

Employee>

How will an organization manage a quick rise in employee growth?  

How does an organization best manage the complexity (and additional energy required) as it expands quickly?  

How does a quick rise in employee size impact an organization's culture?  

How does an organization manage individual employee's perceptions as it becomes much larger?

How does an organization give an employee more meaning as it expands to large sizes?

Customer>  

How does an organization best manage the customer experience when it expands so quickly?  

With so many touchpoints, what are the best ways to manage company/brand perception?

Reflect on the complexity of managing customer perceptions as an organization expands.  

How does an organization help a customer feel special when its customer base expands exponentially?

DO:  Spend time thinking and learning about exponential/fast growth and how situations can quickly change.  Expecting rapid change can help the brain better predict and adapt to the changes.    

2.  Lack of Feedbacks has allowed the Exponential.  Growth will continue until their are Feedbacks to prevent it.

Throughout human history, there were feedbacks that limited the growth and change of human society.  Some of these included:

- Limited knowledge

- Disease and shorter lifespans

- Lack of resources

- Natural disasters

What is interesting to reflect on is that much of human society today sees today's world as normal.  It is hard for the brain to understand that almost every moment of known human history was NOT like today.  We want to drive this point consistently to induce more understanding of the change and empathy/knowledge for ourselves and others as we all try to manage this change within our own lives and our organizations.  Also, what we may feel is normal today will not be normal to someone living 50 to 100 years from now.

This pushback is vital to limit inputs that can be harmful to society.  Here are some examples of where growth that is not stopped can be harmful.

Economic:  Too much money - spending = Inflation

Environment:  Too many inputs not controlled can lead to catastrophes

Resources:  No checks can lead to an Easter Island type impact

Technology:  Threat of uncontrolled AI will be explored

Global Village:  Too much power to one person, one organization, one nation, one ideology, etc., can lead to multiple harmful impacts

As will be explored within the categories, there can be a lot of risk (and reward) with exponential growth (the leverage that comes with it) along with the risk of the unwinding of exponential growth.  

3.  Math Wins

As you do analysis to evaluate your risks, keep this third one in mind.  The need for humans to feel safe in their worldview can be prioritized over math.  Math has given humans a better understanding of reality.

Thinking in a linear fashion is normal for the human brain.  As you explore strategies for your organization, think of how quick change will impact these strategies.  

As an example, consider essential material needed for an organization.  Thinking in a linear way would lead to the conclusion that there will not be as much risk to obtaining this material needed.  Exponential/Quick change thinking would allow areas of possibilities where this material could be in jeopardy and back up strategies can be developed.

IMPORTANT NOTE FOR CHANGE ANALYSIS:

For every section listed here and for all the potential changes you are seeking to understand and be in front of, mentally reflect on how math (exponential and fast change) will impact that particular risk.  

Smaller world with increased complexity - Challenge to human decision making

Through most all of human history, what happened in other parts of the planet did not impact a local tribe.  Organizations and individuals must now adapt to a world that is connected and complex.  What happens throughout the globe matters.  Although the world changed and has become smaller and complex, the human brain cannot evolve quick enough to take on all this change.  As an example, the internet provides vast sums of information of what is going on in the world and it is filled with potential knowledge.  However, a human brain cannot take it in.  Human perception is limited in energy and capacity.  Thus, the individual and the organization can be overwhelmed (especially with exponential change).   

Society Risk:  Decision makers can think of smaller tribes yet the world is now 8 billion plus.  Decisions have and will continue to be made that do not understand the world itself and other cultures.

Organization Risk:  Organizations can be overwhelmed by the vast amount of data and inputs that they are not able to see and protect themselves from.  

How is your organization monitoring risk in world that is becoming smaller and more complex?  How does your organization manage information (discarding what is not useful and focusing well on what is needed)?

Individual Risk:  People can be overwhelmed with too  much information and too much complexity of change.  The brain will not evolve as fast as society.  As such, it is important to find ways to understand the world with limited data.

Exponential increases risks of decisions made

Decisions made throughout an organization will have more impact - increased competition and quick change requires organizations that want to adapt and thrive be able to make better decisions.  This is a common sense statement, however, with a society that is leveraged, the impact of the statement is also leveraged.  Competition will eat up the bad decisions of others. Exponential means a faster race.  Inputs that slow your organization down will allow others to make larger advancements.

Society Risk:  Conflict, Environment, Technology... these are a few items where decisions humans make on the world stage matter dramatically down the road in the near future.  

Organization Risk:  Decisions made by organizations need to be solid.  Too much competition will make bad decisions pay a heavy price.

How is your organization monitoring the most important decisions being made?  What is the mechanism to recognize bad decisions and change course quickly?

Individual Risk:  Less of a risk to an individual but still is a risk.  Similar to organization risk, bad individual decisions will pay a heavier price in an exponential environment.

Every customer and employee is attempting to adapt to exponential and quick change

Change occurs whether people want it to or not.  Each person has their own way and rate of adapting to change.  This is where Theory of Mind and Empathy play a role in learning and understanding how others see their world.  Examples of customer/employee journey challenges:       

> Anxiety of constant change and disorder

> Being overwhelmed - Too much information 

> Mental Health Issues - Depression

> Anger (Need to displace pain) 

> Prediction errors of current events (Too much change, difficult to understand)

> Challenge to physical and cultural survival (Protect self and family)

> Seeking positive inputs (dopamine)

> Goal seeking and achievement

> Personal wins and self-esteem

> Personal management of a world of change and complexity

How is your organization listening and learning how customers and employees are attempting to adapt to constant change?

**** NOTE >  With Customer and Employee Mapping, this risk will be covered.